Category Archives: Betting

Results Upturn In All Weather Races For Top-Rated Horses

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Friday 12th April 2013

There have been 12 top-rated winners over the last 2 days:

- Milans Well in the 15:30 at Wincanton yesterday (BSP of 8.53)
- Whatever It Takes in the 20:50 at Dundalk on Wednesday (7.01)
- The Four Elms in the 19:10 at Limerick yesterday (BSP of 5.85)
- Hill Of Dreams in the 18:00 at Kempton yesterday (BSP of 5.73)
- Maggie Pink in the 20:30 at Kempton yesterday (BSP of 5.20)
- O Ma Lad in the 16:50 at Catterick on Wednesday (BSP of 4.89)
- Qeethaara in the 14:30 at Lingfield on Wednesday (BSP of 3.96)
- El Salvador in the 19:40 at Limerick yesterday (BSP of 3.06)
- Polar Kite in the 14:50 at Catterick on Wednesday (BSP of 2.35)
- Officer In Command in the 16:55 at Kempton yesterday (BSP of 2.33)
- Refreshestheparts in the 17:00 at Lingfield on Wednesday (2.04)
- Fruity O’Rooney in the 16:20 at Fontwell yesterday (BSP of 1.85)

22 top-rated selections have placed and 11 races have been won by second or third top rated horses. To view the overall performance of the top-rated selections, please click here.

All Weather Results

All weather meetings account for a large chunk of daily UK and Irish horse racing and we’re very pleased to report an upturn in results for the top-rated selections at those tracks over the last 6 weeks.

Since the beginning of March 2013 there have been 310 rated all weather races - 97 of those have been won by the top-rated Cherry Pick (31%). Backing every top-rated selection to win over that period would have returned a level stakes profit of 65.13 points after commission (based on Betfair starting prices).

187 top-rated selections have placed in that time (60%) and 186 races have been won by first, second or third top-rated selections (60%). Backing every top-rated selection to place would have returned a level stakes profit of 36.70 points after commission (based on Betfair place SPs). Dutching the top 3 rated in every race would have returned a level stakes profit of 28.29 points after commission (based on Betfair SPs).

That makes a total level stakes profit of 130.12 points after commission for the 3 approaches, an average return of 3.17 points per day and a total return on investment of 14%.

All Weather Returns
Fingers crossed the trend will continue at Lingfield, Wolverhampton & Dundalk today!

The 2013 Cheltenham Festival – How Did The Top-Rated Cherry Picks Fare?

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Monday 18th March 2013

There have been 31 top-rated winners over the last 7 days:

12-Mar-13  17:15 Cheltenham - Rajdhani Express (BSP of 18.72)
15-Mar-13  19:00 Wolverhampton - Fosters Road (10.38)
15-Mar-13  21:20 Dundalk - All Ablaze (8.80)
13-Mar-13  14:30 Southwell - Rio Cobolo (7.34)
15-Mar-13  13:55 Lingfield - Devout (5.88)
14-Mar-13  20:45 Wolverhampton - Greenhead High (5.21)
12-Mar-13  19:50 Wolverhampton - Outlaw Torn (4.30)
16-Mar-13  20:20 Wolverhampton - Flow Chart (4.20)
15-Mar-13  17:25 Wolverhampton - Sinchiroka (4.00)
15-Mar-13  15:20 Cheltenham - Bobs Worth (3.76)
16-Mar-13  18:50 Wolverhampton - The Blue Dog (3.72)
13-Mar-13  13:30 Cheltenham - Back In Focus (3.40)
12-Mar-13  15:05 Southwell - Aubrietia (3.40)
15-Mar-13  17:55 Wolverhampton - Flying Tempo (3.21)
12-Mar-13  16:25 Southwell - Shawkantango (2.99)
12-Mar-13  15:20 Cheltenham - Hurricane Fly (2.83)
13-Mar-13  19:50 Kempton - Upavon (2.67)
11-Mar-13  14:40 Plumpton - Upton Mead (2.46)
15-Mar-13  14:40 Cheltenham - At Fishers Cross (2.43)
13-Mar-13  15:45 Southwell - Misleading Promise (2.41)
13-Mar-13  15:05 Southwell - Frontier Fighter (2.38)
16-Mar-13  21:20 Wolverhampton - Blazing Desert (2.34)
16-Mar-13  19:20 Wolverhampton - Hiddon Coin (2.03)
16-Mar-13  17:50 Wolverhampton - Frontier Fighter (1.94)
13-Mar-13  13:55 Southwell - Hannahs Turn (1.81)
16-Mar-13  16:50 Ffos Las - Royal Chatelier (1.80)
16-Mar-13  18:20 Wolverhampton - Classic Colori (1.79)
13-Mar-13  16:25 Southwell - Masterful Act (1.77)
13-Mar-13  16:55 Huntingdon - Chilbury Hill (1.71)
12-Mar-13  14:05 Cheltenham - Simonsig (1.56)
13-Mar-13  15:20 Cheltenham - Sprinter Sacre (1.26)

30 races have been won by second or third top rated horses and 57 top-rated selections have placed including Connectivity in the 15:15 at Uttoxeter on Saturday with Betfair place SP of 7.09, Solaras Exhibition in the 17:15 at Lingfield on Saturday with a Betfair place SP of 7.00 and Doctor Hilary in the 19:50 at Wolverhampton on Saturday with a Betfair place SP of 5.54. Were it not for the latter being beaten by a neck, it would have been a clean sweep for the top-rated selections at Wolverhampton on Saturday night – the other 6 all won. To view the overall performance of the top-rated selections, please click here.

Since the beginning of March, backing every top-rated selection to win has returned a profit of 33.28 points, backing them to place has returned a profit of 24.80 points and dutching the top 3 in every race has returned a profit of 32.93 points - a total profit of 91.01 points after commission (based on Betfair SPs).

Bobs Worth landed the Cheltenham Gold Cup

Bobs Worth landed the Cheltenham
Gold Cup (photo: Sporting Life)

At Fishers Cross was victorious in the Albert BartlettAt Fishers Cross was victorious in the
Albert Bartlett (photo: Sporting Life)

Cheltenham Report

Overall there were 7 top-rated winners from 20 rated races at Cheltenham this year – a 35% win rate. Backing every top-rated selection to win would have returned a level stakes profit of 12.61 points after commission (based on Betfair SPs) – a cracking result.

The win rate jumps up to 37% (10 winners out of 27 races), and the returns up to 16.17 points if you include backing the top-rated selections in races featuring unrated horses. Please note: Cherry Picks ratings for EVERY UK & Irish race can be accessed from the daily racecard download on JustStartHere (see the “REALCPRATING” column).

Well done to Charles from London who placed an £8 tricast bet on the top 3 rated Cherry Picks selections in the Gold Cup and won £304. How did you get on at Cheltenham this year?

Top-Rated Winners Galore At Cheltenham Yesterday Including 16/1 Shot Rajdhani Express

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Wednesday 13th March 2013

It was a great start to the 2013 Cheltenham Festival for the top-rated selections:

Simonsig justified favouritism in the ArkleSimonsig justified favouritism in
the Arkle (photo: Sporting Life)

Hurricane Fly battled it out for victory in the Champion HurdleHurricane Fly battled to victory in the
Champion Hurdle (photo: Sporting Life)

Rajdhani Express (16/1) won the Rewards4Racing Novices' Handicap ChaseRajdhani Express (16/1) won the Novices’
Handicap Chase (photo: Sporting Life)


The 2 Cheltenham races featuring unrated horses were won by top-rated selections too - Champagne Fever (5/1) won the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle and Quevega (8/11f) won the Mares’ Hurdle. Please note: Cherry Picks ratings for EVERY UK & Irish race can accessed from the daily racecard download on JustStartHere (see the “REALCPRATING” column).

5 winners out of 6 so far then – not a bad start! Let’s hope for another good day today…

Cherry Picks Ratings For Today’s Racing At Southwell, Wolverhampton & Carlisle

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Monday 18th February 2013

There have been 6 top-rated winners over the last 3 days:

- Across The Bay in the 14:20 at Haydock on Saturday (BSP of 13.00)
- Cloudy Too in the 16:05 at Haydock on Saturday (BSP of 5.50)
- Solar Deity in the 16:00 at Lingfield on Saturday (BSP of 4.15)
- Heronry in the 16:05 at Sandown on Friday (BSP of 3.55)
- Hillbilly Boy in the 12:40 at Lingfield on Saturday (BSP of 2.03)
- Zarkandar in the 15:35 at Wincanton on Saturday (BSP of 1.39)

Odds-on favourite Zarkandar ran out a ready winner of the Grade Two Bathwick Tyres Kingwell Hurdle at Wincanton
Odds-on favourite Zarkandar ran out a ready winner of the Grade Two Bathwick Tyres Kingwell Hurdle at Wincanton
(photo: Sporting Life)

Across The Bay showed admirable resolution from the front to win the Rendlesham Hurdle at Haydock Park
Across The Bay showed admirable resolution from the front to win the Rendlesham Hurdle at Haydock Park (photo: Sporting Life)

12 top-rated selections have placed and 6 races have been won by second or third top-rated selections.

Cherry Picks Ratings For Today’s Racing At Fakenham, Lingfield, Sandown, Wolverhampton & Dundalk

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Friday 15th February 2013

There have been 8 top-rated winners over the last 2 days:

- Wild Geese in the 14:40 at Musselburgh on Wednesday (BSP of 8.67)
- Picansort in the 18:00 at Kempton on Wednesday (BSP of 5.55)
- MJ Woodward in the 13:50 at Southwell on Wednesday (BSP of 4.10)
- Gabrial The Duke in the 14:00 at Lingfield on Wednesday (BSP of 3.66)
- Clashnabrook in the 14:50 at Thurles yesterday (BSP of 3.33)
- Dewala in the 16:50 at Southwell on Wednesday (BSP of 1.99)
- Coverholder in the 15:40 at Kelso yesterday (BSP of 1.76)
- Peddlers Cross in the 13:40 at Musselburgh on Wednesday (BSP of 1.24)

Peddlers Cross won at Musselburgh ahead of his Cheltenham Festival World Hurdle bidPeddlers Cross won at Musselburgh ahead of his Cheltenham
Festival World Hurdle bid (photo: Sporting Life)

16 top-rated selections have placed including Cecily Parsley in the 14:30 at Lingfield on Wednesday with a Betfair place SP of 6.20 and Studfarmer in the 18:30 at Kempton on Wednesday with a Betfair place SP of 5.40. 6 races have been won by second or third top-rated selections.

Steamers That Tick All The Boxes

The market movers system we’ve been keeping track of recently has now produced 16 winners out of 62 qualifying selections since the beginning of February and a total return of +31.57 points after commission (based on Betfair starting prices). We’ll continue to keep an eye on how it performs over the coming days.

If you have any systems you’d like us to investigate using the historical price movement data, please just let us know - we’d be more than happy to carry out some analysis for you.

Cherry Picks Ratings For Today’s Racing At Lingfield, Musselburgh, Southwell, Thurles & Kempton

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Wednesday 13th February 2013

There have been 5 top-rated winners over the last 2 days:

- Nuts N Bolts in the 16:30 at Ayr yesterday (BSP of 3.89)
- Shangani in the 16:10 at Catterick on Monday (BSP of 2.98)
- Sacre Toi in the 16:00 at Ayr yesterday (BSP of 2.21)
- Flying Pickets in the 14:45 at Southwell yesterday (BSP of 1.92)
- Ballygarvey in the 14:00 at Lingfield yesterday (BSP of 1.78)

11 top-rated selections have placed and 7 races have been won by second or third top-rated selections.

A New Look For The JustStartHere Horse Racing Market Movers Website

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Monday 11th February 2013

There have been 10 top-rated winners over the last 3 days:

- Dream Again Boys in the 15:15 at Warwick on Saturday (BSP of 9.66)
- Prince Of Pirates in the 16:00 at Kempton on Friday (BSP of 8.95)
- Maslak in the 13:50 at Southwell yesterday (BSP of 4.49)
- Molotof in the 14:05 at Warwick on Saturday (BSP of 3.68)
- Broxbourne in the 19:00 at Wolverhampton on Friday (BSP of 3.50)
- Barrakilla in the 15:25 at Uttoxeter on Saturday (BSP of 3.25)
- Ma Filleule in the 13:30 at Warwick on Saturday (BSP of 2.82)
- Sir Des Champs in the 15:20 at Leopardstown on Saturday (BSP of 2.47)
- Silviniaco Conti in the 14:25 at Newbury on Saturday (BSP of 1.93)
- Hillbilly Boy in the 18:50 at Wolverhampton on Saturday (BSP of 1.73)

Silviniaco Conti kept up his unbeaten record this season with an emphatic victory in the Betfair Denman Chase at Newbury on Saturday Sir Des Champs got the better of a thrilling match with Flemenstar in the Grade 1 Hennessy Gold Cup at Leopardstown on Saturday

Silviniaco Conti kept up his unbeaten record this season with an emphatic victory in the Betfair Denman Chase at Newbury on Saturday (photo: Sporting Life)

Sir Des Champs got the better of Flemenstar in a thrilling Hennessy Gold Cup at Leopardstown on Saturday (photo: Sporting Life)

24 top-rated selections have placed and 19 races have been won by second or third top-rated selections.

Horse Racing Steamers That Tick All The Boxes

16 horses have recorded the highest positive Mov1, Mean & 321 values in their respective races on JustStartHere over the last 3 days and 3 of them have gone on to win:

- Swaledale Lad in the 15:45 at Bangor on Friday (Betfair SP of 8.22)
- Westward Point in the 16:25 at Warwick on Saturday (Betfair SP of 17)
- Theatrical Star in the 16:00 at Exeter yesterday (Betfair SP of 4.53)

Backing all 16 qualifying selections to win would have returned a profit of 12.41 points after commission (based on Betfair starting prices).

Over the last 7 days the approach has produced 11 winners out of 32 qualifying selections (34%), and a total return of +46.44 points after commission (based on Betfair starting prices).

You can read more about the system here.

Some of you may have noticed that the JustStartHere website has recently had a bit of a makeover. If you get the chance, please take a look around and let us know what you think – we’re always keen to receive feedback.

Free Horse Racing Market Movers Betting System – Results

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Friday 8th February 2013

There have been 7 top-rated winners over the last 2 days:

- Windforpower in the 18:05 at Kempton on Wednesday (BSP of 8.00)
- Shutthefrontdoor in the 16:05 at Carlisle on Wednesday (BSP of 7.00)
- Relax in the 15:35 at Doncaster yesterday (BSP of 3.95)
- Arbeo in the 14:40 at Huntingdon yesterday (BSP of 3.76)
- Grandioso in the 15:50 at Ludlow on Wednesday (BSP of 2.78)
- Mr Mole in the 14:50 at Taunton yesterday (BSP of 2.52)
- Call The Police in the 15:40 at Clonmel yesterday (BSP of 2.00)

14 top-rated selections have placed and 14 races have been won by second or third top-rated selections.

Horse Racing Steamers That Tick All The Boxes

Following on from Wednesday’s observations, 9 horses have recorded the highest positive Mov1, Mean & 321 values in their respective races on JustStartHere over the last 2 days:

- Our Ivor in the 13:30 at Southwell on Wednesday (W)
- Basford Ben in the 13:50 at Carlisle on Wednesday (P)
- Marshall Art in the 14:00 at Southwell on Wednesday (W)
- Musnad in the 15:40 at Southwell on Wednesday (L)
- Bob ‘n’ You in the 16:25 at Ludlow on Wednesday (W)
- Surrey Dream the 17:35 at Kempton on Wednesday (L)
- Crystal Peaks n the 19:35 at Kempton on Wednesday (W)
- Start Royal in the 16:15 at Huntingdon yesterday (L)
- Needwood Ridge in the 17:35 at Wolverhampton yesterday (L)

The first 3 qualifying selections on the list are displayed on the JustStartHere screenshot below (along with the 13:40 at Ludlow in which there was no qualifying selection because the highest positive Mov1, Mean & 321 values in the race were recorded by different horses):

Horse Racing Steamers That Tick All The Boxes
Click on image above to enlarge

Backing all 9 qualifying selections to win would have returned a profit of 20.43 points after commission (based on Betfair starting prices).

Click here to sign up to JustStartHere and start developing your own horse racing price movement betting systems

Horse Racing Market Movers That Tick All The Boxes

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Wednesday 6th February 2013

There have been 4 top-rated winners over the last 2 days:

- Aubrietia in the 15:40 at Southwell yesterday (Betfair SP of 6.01)
- Winds And Waves in the 15:00 at Market Rasen yesterday (BSP of 5.55)
- Gallox Bridge in the 14:30 at Market Rasen yesterday (BSP of 2.96)
- Stand Guard in the 14:40 at Southwell yesterday (BSP of 1.57)

6 top-rated selections have placed and 6 races have been won by second or third top-rated selections. To view the overall performance of the top-rated selections, please click here.

Market Movers That Tick All The Boxes

The 7 horses listed below all recorded the highest positive Mov1, Mean & 321 values in their respective races on JustStartHere - the only 7 to do so over the last 2 days:

- Le Reve in the 14:00 at Market Rasen yesterday (W)
- Bartley in the 14:10 at Southwell yesterday (P)
- Unzing in the 14:25 at Fairyhouse yesterday (P)
- Smart Money in the 14:55 at Fairyhouse yesterday (W)
- Sans Loi in the 15:40 at Southwell yesterday (L)
- Helloin the 16:30 at Market Rasen yesterday (W)
- Discay in the 16:40 at Southwell yesterday (W)

Out of the 7, 4 went on to win (57%) and 6 went on to place (86%). Backing them all to win would have returned a profit of 13.60 points after commission (based on Betfair SPs) and backing them all to place would have returned a profit of 12.91 points after commission (based on Betfair place SPs).

If a horse ticks all 3 boxes of being the biggest overall (Mov1), average (Mean) & late (321) steamer in a race, it’s definitely worth taking note.

Click here to sign up to JustStartHere and start developing your own horse racing price movement betting systems

Cherry Picks Horse Racing Ratings For Wolverhampton & Doncaster

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Monday 4th February 2013

There have been 10 top-rated winners over the last 3 days:

- Stentorian in the 16:20 at Lingfield on Friday (BSP of 3.90)
- Spinning Ridge in the 16:35 at Lingfield on Saturday (BSP of 3.82)
- Infinite Magic in the 15:45 at Lingfield on Friday (BSP of 3.75)
- Brick Red in the 15:30 at Musselburgh yesterday (BSP of 3.49)
- Kapga De Cerisy in the 16:10 at Sandown on Saturday (BSP of 2.47)
- Shangani in the 16:40 at Sandown on Saturday (BSP of 2.26)
- Derwentwater in the 20:00 at Wolverhampton on Friday (BSP of 2.26)
- Colbert Station in the 13:50 at Punchestown yesterday (BSP of 2.19)
- Hurricane Spirit in the 16:50 at Wolverhampton on Friday (BSP of 1.85)
- Captain Conan in the 14:25 at Sandown on Saturday (BSP of 1.57)

21 top-rated selections have placed and 14 races have been won by second or third top-rated selections. To view the overall performance of the top-rated selections, please click here.

Cherry Picks Horse Racing Ratings – 15 Top-Rated Winners Over The Last 2 Days

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Friday 1st February 2013

There have been 15 top-rated winners over the last 2 days:

- Chelsea Grey in the 18:50 at Kempton on Wednesday (BSP of 15.68)
- Canary Wharf in the 17:20 at Kempton on Wednesday (BSP of 5.04)
- Gorgehous Lliege in the 15:50 at Towcester yesterday (BSP of 4.55)
- Drussell in the 15:40 at Ludlow on Wednesday (BSP of 4.10)
- Jack My Boy in the 16:30 at Lingfield yesterday (BSP of 3.30)
- Young Jackie in the 18:20 at Wolverhampton yesterday (BSP of 2.92)
- Arthur’s Pass in the 16:30 at Leicester on Wednesday (BSP of 2.77)
- Valdaw in the 15:00 at Lingfield yesterday (BSP of 2.37)
- Mick Dundee in the 14:00 at Lingfield yesterday (BSP of 2.10)
- Buddy Bolero in the 15:30 at Leicester on Wednesday (BSP of 2.06)
- Prophets Pride in the 19:50 at Kempton on Wednesday (BSP of 1.94)
- Taxiformissbyron in the 19:50 at Wolverhampton yesterday (BSP of 1.86)
- Thunderstorm in the 14:20 at Towcester yesterday (BSP of 1.77)
- Whispering Warrior in the 16:00 at Lingfield yesterday (BSP of 1.49)

21 top-rated selections have placed and 7 races have been won by second or third top-rated selections including Royal Bajan who won the 18:50 at Wolverhampton yesterday with a Betfair SP of 30.21, Sir Dylan who won the 17:50 at Wolverhampton yesterday with a Betfair SP of 16.55 and Master Overseer who the 15:10 at Wincanton yesterday with a Betfair SP of 15.51.

*With regards to the investigation into top-rated picks with double figure odds, we’re gradually working our way through the 10,000+ selections – hopefully we’ll have some comprehensive findings soon.

Horse Racing Market Movers

The 60 minute steamer system discussed on Wednesday made a profit of 5.06 points after commission on Wednesday and a loss of 4.33 points after commission yesterday (returns based on Betfair place starting prices). We’ll continue to keep an eye on how the approach fares over the next few days.

A couple of stand out steamers did well at Ludlow on Wednesday. Midnight Belle was the only blue steamer on JustStartHere in the 14:40 before going on to win the race with a Betfair SP of 11.26 and Big News recorded the biggest positive Mov1 and 321 values in the 14:10 before going on to place with a Betfair place SP of 11.35:

Stand Out Horse Racing Steamers
Click on image above to enlarge

Click here to monitor all the UK and Irish horse racing market movers over the weekend with JustStartHere

Backing Big Early Horse Racing Steamers To Place

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Wednesday 30th January 2013

There have been 7 top-rated winners over the last 2 days:

- Prince James in the 17:00 at Wolverhampton yesterday (BSP of 7.02)
- Irene Kennet in the 14:50 at Kempton on Monday (BSP of 6.60)
- Compton Rainbow in the 16:50 at Kempton on Monday (BSP of 3.96)
- Naru in the 16:40 at Wolverhampton on Monday (BSP of 3.54)
- Hepworth in the 17:10 at Wolverhampton on Monday (BSP of 3.20)
- Hab Reeth in the 13:40 at Wolverhampton on Monday (BSP of 2.69)
- Stand Guard in the 15:00 at Wolverhampton yesterday (BSP of 1.15)

11 top-rated selections have placed and 4 races have been won by second or third top-rated selections.

Backing Big Early Horse Racing Steamers To Place

Not everyone is able to monitor the racing right up until 1 minute before the off for every race. With this in mind, we spent some time investigating the earlier price movements on JustStartHere to see if there were any profitable betting angles to be found.

One pattern jumped out straight away – the biggest stand out 60 minute steamers in 3 out of the opening 4 races on Monday went on to place with big Betfair place odds. By “stand out” we mean green or blue steamers – i.e. horses that have recorded Mov values in excess of +2.5 (green) or +5(blue). The Mov60 values for the biggest “stand out” steamers in the 3 races mentioned are outlined in red on the screenshot below:

Early SteamersClick on image above to enlarge

Using 11am as the morning comparison time on JustStartHere, backing only the biggest green or blue Mov60 steamer in each race to place over the last 2 days would have returned a profit of 43.32 points after commission (based on Betfair place SPs). The full results are listed below:

Date Race Horse 11am Price 60 Min Price Mov60 Value Result Betfair Place SP Returns
28/01 13:40 Wolverhampton Bachelor Knight 36.00 25.00 +3.05 P 3.14
28/01 13:50 Kempton Kindia 110.00 65.00 +4.09 P 32.40
28/01 14:10 Wolverhampton Script 46.00 30.00 +3.47 P 8.00
28/01 15:10 Wolverhampton King Wood 27.00 7.00 +7.40 L -1.00
28/01 15:20 Kempton Saffron Park 50.00 26.00 +4.80 L -1.00
28/01 16:20 Kempton Reflect 14.00 8.40 +3.99 W 1.83
28/01 16:40 Wolverhampton Lucky Mountain 19.00 12.00 +3.68 L -1.00
28/01 17:10 Wolverhampton Mediterranean Sea 17.50 12.50 +2.85 L -1.00
29/01 13:20 Lingfield Maid Of Oaksey 29.00 18.00 +3.79 L -1.00
29/01 16:20 Lingfield Oscars Den 7.80 4.50 +4.23 W 1.43
29/01 17:30 Wolverhampton Ace Master 9.00 5.40 +3.99 P 1.52
Total: 43.32

Early days yet, but this approach could well be worth some further investigation – especially for those who prefer to get their bets on a bit earlier than 1 minute before the off. We’ll keep an eye on results over the next few days and look to analyse the historical performance of the system over a longer period of time.

Click here to start developing your own horse racing price movement betting systems with JustStartHere

Another Stand Out Winning Horse Racing Steamer

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Monday 28th January 2013

There have been 5 top-rated winners over the last 3 days:

- Delightful Sleep in the 19:30 at Wolverhampton on Friday (BSP of 7.65)
- Tarooq in the 14:15 at Wolverhampton on Saturday (BSP of 5.99)
- Polar Venture in the 15:05 at Lingfield on Friday (BSP of 3.45)
- Sprinter Sacre in the 13:50 at Cheltenham on Saturday (BSP of 1.22)
- Hurricane Fly in the 13:55 at Leopardstown yesterday (BSP of 1.17)

Sprinter Sacre was awesome again in the Victor Chandler Chase at Cheltenham on Saturday Hurricane Fly was completely dominant at the business end of the Irish Champion Hurdle at Leopardstown yesterday

Sprinter Sacre was awesome again in the Victor Chandler Chase at Cheltenham on Saturday (photo: Sporting Life)

Hurricane Fly was completely dominant at the business end of the Irish Champion Hurdle at Leopardstown yesterday (photo: Sporting Life)

17 top-rated selections have placed including Russian Bullet who came second in the 13:30 at Lingfield on Friday (Betfair SP of 25.35, place SP of 5.43). 13 races have been won by second or third top-rated selections including Vino Griego who won the 12:40 at Cheltenham on Saturday with a Betfair SP of 30.51, Abbey Lane who won the 15:20 at Leopardstown on Saturday with a Betfair SP of 29 and Speed Steed who won the 14:50 at Wolverhampton on Saturday with a Betfair SP of 22.67 (betting system idea: concentrating on top-3 rated horses with big prices). To view the overall performance of the top-rated selections, please click here.

Stand Out, Big Priced Steamer

Toymaker was the stand out steamer in the 17:00 at Wolverhampton on Friday and went on to win the race with a Betfair starting price of 23.60. It recorded green Mov1, Mean & 321 values on JustStartHere after coming in from an 11am price of 44 to a price of 24 at 1 minute before the off:

Stand Out Steamer
Click on image above to enlarge

Betfair Multiples allows you to place bets as small as £1 each way right up until the start of the race, providing plenty of time to act on the the JustStartHere information that comes in a 1 minute before post time:
Betfair Multiples
Click on image above to enlarge

Click here to try out the JustStartHere horse racing market movers monitoring service for just £6 – “great fun & good profits”

A Look At Top-Rated Winners With Big Betfair Starting Prices

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Friday 25th January 2013

There have been 9 top-rated winners over the last 2 days:

- Wom in the 16:15 at Lingfield yesterday (Betfair SP of 23.34)
- South Cape in the 16:35 at Kempton yesterday (BSP of 11.15)
- Lookounow in the 15:55 at Gowran Park yesterday (BSP of 10.07)
- Storm Runner in the 15:00 at Lingfield on Wednesday (BSP of 3.93)
- Consigliere in the 15:10 at Ayr on Wednesday (BSP of 3.63)
- Taxiformissbyron in the 18:30 at Kempton on Wednesday (BSP 3.40)
- Black Dave in the 14:15 at Lingfield yesterday (BSP of 2.87)
- English Summer in the 18:35 at Kempton yesterday (BSP of 2.67)
- Foxtrot Jubilee in the 19:00 at Kempton on Wednesday (BSP of 1.24)

18 top-rated selections have placed and 7 races have been won by second or third top-rated selections. To view the overall performance of the top-rated selections, please click here.

There were 3 top-rated winners with double figure Betfair starting prices yesterday. This takes the total number of Cherry Picks top-rated winners with BSPs of 10 or more to 162 since April 2011:

Month – No. Winners With Double Figure BPSs

Apr-2011 – 8
May-2011 – 9
Jun-2011 – 12
Jul-2011 – 5
Aug-2011 – 11
Sep-2011 – 10
Oct-2011 – 12
Nov-2011 – 3
Dec-2011 – 7
Jan-2012 – 3
Feb-2012 – 3
Mar-2012 – 2
Apr-2012 – 12
May-2012 – 6
Jun-2012 – 9
Jul-2012 – 5
Aug-2012 – 9
Sep-2012 – 11
Oct-2012 – 6
Nov-2012 – 7
Dec-2012 – 7
Jan-2013 – 5

Total: 162

Next week we’ll investigate the profitability of concentrating on top-rated selections with double figure Betfair starting prices.

Watch Out For Unusual Betting Activity At Kempton Today

There is a whole card of NH Flat Races at Kempton today and these types of races often throw up some surprising results. Use JustStartHere to keep an eye out for any unusual betting activity.

E-Book System Results – Last 2 Days

Cherry Lays (Recovery):  +10.20 points

(+49.80 points amassed in 2013)

Cherry Pips:  -72.00 points

(-154.40 points amassed in 2013)

Full Results (Please note: these 2 systems are not connected to the Cherry Picks ratings)

Suspicious Betting Activity – Horse Racing Outsiders

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Wednesday 23rd January 2013

There have been 8 top-rated winners over the last 2 days:

- Dixie Gwalia in the 16:05 at Lingfield yesterday (Betfair SP of 12.14)
- Maypole Joe in the 15:35 at Wolverhampton on Monday (BSP of 5.60)
- Woolfall Sovereign in the 13:50 at Lingfield yesterday (BSP of 3.50)
- Hab Reeh in the 15:10 at Wolverhampton yesterday (BSP of 3.25)
- Harry Buckle in the 13:20 at Lingfield yesterday (BSP of 3.15)
- Mubtadi in the 14:25 at Lingfield yesterday (BSP of 2.36)
- Dorothy’s Dancing in the 14:55 at Lingfield yesterday (BSP of 2.11)
- Ashamaly in the 14:35 at Wolverhampton yesterday (BSP of 6.68)

10 top-rated selections have placed and 4 races have been won by second or third top-rated selections.

E-Book System Results – Last 2 Days

Cherry Lays (Recovery):  -4.20 points

(+39.60 points amassed in 2013)

Cherry Pips:  0.00 points

(-82.40 points amassed in 2013)

Full Results (Please note: these 2 systems are not connected to the Cherry Picks ratings)

Suspicious Betting Activity – Horse Racing Outsiders

Following on from our observations last Wednesday, another couple of outsiders attracted late money yesterday only to drift back out again just before the off.

The betting exchange odds for Edgware Road in the 17:10 at Wolverhampton came in from 26 to 18.5 between 5 and 3 minutes before post time (see movement value outlined in red on the screenshot below), only to then drift back our again to 25 at 1 minute before the off. This caused it to record a noticeably high negative value of -3.51 on JustStartHere. Always look out for suspicious late betting activity like this – the horse went on to be beaten by a neck (Betfair SP of 29, place SP of 5.92):

Unusual Betting PatternsClick on image above to enlarge

Earlier on, the betting exchange odds for Even Stevens steamed in from 48 to 30 between 15 minutes and 3 minutes before the start of the 13:50 at Lingfield, only to then drift out again (see screenshot below). It recorded the highest negative 321 rating in the race on JustStartHere and went on to be beaten by half a length (Betfair place SP of 7.2).

Unusual Betting PatternsClick on image above to enlarge

Always ask yourself this when monitoring the prices just before post time – if a horse has recorded a high negative 321 value, is it part of a general drifting pattern or is it because lots of late money went on it prior to 3 minutes before the off to make the drift appear artificially large? If it’s the latter, take note!

Click here to watch the horse racing price movement drama unfold today at Ayr, Kempton, Lingfield & Limerick

How Do The Top-Rated Horse Racing Tips Fare On Different Days Of The Week?

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Monday 21st January 2013

There have been 2 top-rated winners over the last 3 days:

- Spifer in the 14:55 at Kempton on Saturday (Betfair SP of 6.68)
- Tennis Cap in the 15:20 at Naas on Saturday (Betfair SP of 4.28)

5 top-rated selections have placed including Lady Lyrath (Betfair SP of25, place SP of 6.41), who was beaten into second by half a length in the 20:50 at Dundalk on Friday. 4 races have been won by second or third top-rated selections. To view the overall performance of the top-rated selections, please click here.

E-Book System Results – Last 3 Days

Cherry Lays (Recovery):  0.00 points

(+43.80 points amassed in 2013)

Cherry Pips:  0.00 points

(-82.40 points amassed in 2013)

Top-Rated Cherry Picks Day Of The Week Analysis

Many of you have written in recently asking how the top-rated selections fare on the different days of the week. Seeing as how the weather has played havoc with the racing schedule over the last few days, we thought we’d carry out some analysis. Here are the findings:

Day No. Days No. Winning Days Points Returns
Saturday 93 47 (51%) +182.16
Wednesday 82 37 (40%) +78.41
Tuesday 93 44 (48%) +42.17
Friday 92 39 (42%) +1.94
Sunday 92 36 (44%) -9.75
Monday 92 37 (40%) -57.64
Thursday 93 39 (42%) -151.41
Totals: 637 279 (44%) +85.89 
Day Of The Week Analysis

Unsurprisingly then, Saturday comes out on top. The quality of horse racing is generally better on Saturdays and this makes predicting winners a whole lot easier. Thursday is the day to avoid it seems!

If you have any Cherry Picks analysis requests, please don’t hesitate to get in contact (info@cherrybets.com) –  we’d be more than happy to take a look for you if we can.

Look Out For Late Horse Racing Steamers With Big Odds

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Friday 18th January 2013

There have been 6 top-rated winners over the last 2 days:

- Chartreux in the 14:50 at Wincanton yesterday (Betfair SP of 3.15)
- Great Ormond in the 18:00 at Wolverhampton yesterday (BSP of 3.02)
- Paphos in the 13:30 at Lingfield on Wednesday (BSP of 1.87)
- Gabrial The Boss in the 14:35 at Lingfield on Wednesday (BSP of 1.71)
- Brick Red in the 15:20 at Wincanton yesterday (BSP of 1.55)
- Stand Guard in the 17:00 at Wolverhampton yesterday (BSP of 1.22)

11 top-rated selections have placed and 11 races have been won by second or third top-rated selections including Commercial who won the 16:15 at Kempton on Wednesday with a Betfair SP of 17.16. Dutching the top 3 in every rated race over the last 2 days would have returned a profit of 11.10 points after commission (based on Betfair SPs).

E-Book System Results – Last 2 Days

Cherry Lays (Recovery):  +9.00 points

(+43.80 points amassed in 2013)

Cherry Pips:  +14.10 points

(-82.40 points amassed in 2013)

Full Results (Please note: these 2 systems are not connected to the Cherry Picks ratings)

More Big Late Steamers With Big Prices Yesterday

The price of Un Ace more than halved between 3 minutes and 1 minute before the start of the 13:00 at Lingfield. This was signalled by a huge positive 321 value of +5.45 being recorded on JustStartHere (highlighted in red on the screenshot below). Money certainly talked in this instance as the horse went on to win the race with a Betfair starting price of 41.98 (place SP of 10):

Big Late Steamer

Click on image above to enlarge

There was another big late steamer with big odds later on as the price for Dangan Daylight came in from 42 to 30 during the last 3 minutes before the start of the 14:40 at Thurles (high positive JustStartHere 321 value highlighted in red on the screenshot below). The horse went on to be beaten by half a length (Betfair place SP of 4.29):

Big Late Steamer

Click on image above to enlarge

For those who have a system based around the top 2 321 steamers in every race, there was a huge winner in the 15:30 at Lingfield. Border Station was the second biggest late steamer in the race on JustStartHere and went on to win the race with an enormous Betfair SP of 320 (place SP of 29). The 321 value is highlighted in red on the screenshot below:

Big Late Steamer

Click on image above to enlarge

Fancy watching out for unusual betting patterns over the weekend? Click here to try out JustStartHere for just £6.

Watch Out For Outsiders That Have Attracted Late Money

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Wednesday 16th January 2013

There have been 7 top-rated winners over the last 2 days:

- Idol Deputy in the 17:30 at Wolverhampton yesterday (BSP of 4.50)
- Hazard Warning in the 14:20 at Wolverhampton on Monday (4.17)
- Shaking Hands in the 13:40 at Ffos Las on yesterday (BSP of 4.02)
- Killimore Cottage in the 15:05 at Lingfield yesterday (BSP of 3.27)
- Pairumani Prince in the 15:30 at Lingfield on Monday (BSP of 2.78)
- Double Dash in the 15:35 at Lingfield yesterday (BSP of 2.60)
- Sweet Liberta in the 14:00 at Lingfield on Monday (BSP of 2.13)

13 top-rated selections have placed & 8 races have been won by second or third top-rated selections.

E-Book System Results – Last 2 Days

Cherry Lays (Recovery):  -3.00 points

(+34.80 points amassed in 2013)

Cherry Pips:  -28.80 points

(-95.50 points amassed in 2013)

Full Results (Please note: these 2 systems are not connected to the Cherry Picks ratings)

More Unusual Betting Patterns To Look Out For

Another horse caught my eye on JustStartHere yesterday – one that may surprise you. Miserere Mei recorded a normally off-putting high negative 321 value of -3.33 but that was AFTER the price had steamed in from 25 to 15 between 15 minutes and 3 minutes before post time (the notable price movements are highlighted in red on the screenshot below):

Unusual Betting Patterns
Click on image above to enlarge

The horse drifted massively during the last 3 minutes before the off but this has to be weighed up against the fact that it was gambled on very heavily during the previous 12 minutes or so. Either way, you should always take note when a a big outsider attracts such a flurry of betting activity.

As it turned out, Miserere Mei (Betfair SP of 21.37) came third in a race where the top 3 were separated by 2 necks. It was a close run thing but the Betfair SP place odds were still a generous 5.17. When it comes to backing outsiders in these scenarios, I would always recommend a conservative approach – i.e. backing them each way or to place.

Watch out for unusual betting patterns today on JustStartHere

The Results For Our Horse Racing Lay Betting System Continue To Impress

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Monday 14th January 2013

There have been 10 top-rated winners over the last 3 days:

- Honey Of A Kitten in the 11:45 at Lingfield on Saturday (BSP of 9.92)
- Rody in the 13:15 at Warwick on Saturday (BSP of 7.12)
- Polar Venture in the 14:00 at Lingfield on Saturday (BSP of 4.90)
- Dunowen Point in the 14:15 at Wetherby on Saturday (BSP of 3.98)
- Kames Park in the 16:00 at Wolverhampton yesterday (BSP of 3.89)
- Rocky Creek in the 13:50 at Warwick on Saturday (BSP of 2.88)
- Dashing George in the 15:25 at Wetherby on Saturday (BSP of 2.64)
- Jacobs Son in the 15:30 at Lingfield on Friday (BSP of 2.12)
- Stand Guard in the 18:00 at Wolverhampton on Friday (BSP of 1.63)
- Tarooq in the 12:30 at Lingfield on Friday (BSP of 1.50)

Rocky Creek ran out a smooth winner of the Betfred Mobile Lotto Novices' Chase at Warwick on Saturday to make it two wins from three starts over fences

Rocky Creek ran out a smooth winner of the Betfred Mobile
Lotto Novices’ Chase at Warwick on Saturday to make it two
wins from three starts over fences (photo: Sporting Life)

24 top-rated selections have placed & 14 races have been won by second or third top-rated selections including Al Freej who won the 14:30 at Lingfield on Friday with a Betfair SP of 40 (betting system idea – backing highly rated horses with big prices).

E-Book System Results – Last 3 Days

Cherry Lays (Recovery):  +9.00 points

(+37.80 points amassed in 2013)

Cherry Pips:  +27.20 points

(-67.70 points amassed in 2013)

Full Results (Please note: these 2 systems are not connected to the Cherry Picks ratings)

How Do We Personally Use The Price Movement Data Provided By JustStartHere?

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I had a bit of time to kill on my lunchbreak today so I logged into my JustStartHere account and had a quick look at the steamers and drifters in the upcoming race (the 13:30 at Lingfield). I noticed that 2 outsiders (Polarity & Big Kahuna) had attracted a bit of money during the last 3 minutes before post time. In fact, they recorded the 2 highest positive 321 values in the race on  JustStartHere (highlighted in red on the screenshot below):

Horse Racing SteamersClick on image above to enlarge

Seeing that the race had 8 runners (meaning 3 place positions), and that the odds were good, I decided to put £2 on each of them to place:

Betfair ScreenClick on image above to enlarge

Polarity duly came third with an enormous Betfair place SP of 65.26 and netted me a profit of £120.19 after commission:

Betfair WinningsClick on image above to enlarge

We receive a lot of emails asking how we personally use the JustStartHere information and this demonstrates our approach perfectly. It is important to be selective and look for value. In this race the 3 favourites were odds-on to place yet the 2 biggest positive 321 ratings on JSH were recorded by 2 outsiders. All it takes is for one of the top 3 in the betting to run a bad race and for one of the 2 outsiders that have been backed during the last 3 minutes before post time to show why they have attracted late money. As it turned out, this is exactly what transpired and a £4 outlay returned a profit of £120.

You don’t have to try and force an angle in every single race – just pick the ones where you think there’s value to be had. Nor do you have to sit and follow a system all day, every day to make use of the data. At just £6 per month the service still provides value for money if you only use it in the evenings, at weekends or whenever you get the chance to follow the racing. Indeed, the profit I made in this race covers a 20 month subscription to the service.

Click on the button below to monitor unusual betting patterns in all UK & Irish horse racing markets with JustStartHere:

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