Cherry Picks Ratings For Today’s Racing At Fakenham, Lingfield, Sandown, Wolverhampton & Dundalk

Friday 15th February 2013

There have been 8 top-rated winners over the last 2 days:

Wild Geese in the 14:40 at Musselburgh on Wednesday (BSP of 8.67)
Picansort in the 18:00 at Kempton on Wednesday (BSP of 5.55)
MJ Woodward in the 13:50 at Southwell on Wednesday (BSP of 4.10)
Gabrial The Duke in the 14:00 at Lingfield on Wednesday (BSP of 3.66)
Clashnabrook in the 14:50 at Thurles yesterday (BSP of 3.33)
Dewala in the 16:50 at Southwell on Wednesday (BSP of 1.99)
Coverholder in the 15:40 at Kelso yesterday (BSP of 1.76)
Peddlers Cross in the 13:40 at Musselburgh on Wednesday (BSP of 1.24)

Peddlers Cross won at Musselburgh ahead of his Cheltenham Festival World Hurdle bidPeddlers Cross won at Musselburgh ahead of his Cheltenham
Festival World Hurdle bid (photo: Sporting Life)

16 top-rated selections have placed including Cecily Parsley in the 14:30 at Lingfield on Wednesday with a Betfair place SP of 6.20 and Studfarmer in the 18:30 at Kempton on Wednesday with a Betfair place SP of 5.406 races have been won by second or third top-rated selections.

Steamers That Tick All The Boxes

The market movers system we’ve been keeping track of recently has now produced 16 winners out of 62 qualifying selections since the beginning of February and a total return of +31.57 points after commission (based on Betfair starting prices). We’ll continue to keep an eye on how it performs over the coming days.

If you have any systems you’d like us to investigate using the historical price movement data, please just let us know - we’d be more than happy to carry out some analysis for you.

Comments

comments

8 thoughts on “Cherry Picks Ratings For Today’s Racing At Fakenham, Lingfield, Sandown, Wolverhampton & Dundalk

  1. Hi,

    No you were right there were three races, I managed to miss the last one! Yes I do include the Zero 321 rating in Method 2 selections. There are a surprising number of Zero 321′s that fruitful in the higher odds market, both win and place.

    I’ve been analysing where the Mov 1 and Mean boxes are Red and 321 box is Zero. I’ve done the figures from 29th Jan up to and including the 20th so far based on testing at £10 win/£10 Place at BSP and that’s coming out at about £2800 profit……boosted by the success of Rathbawn Belle in the 5.15 at Punchestown on the 20th with a win BSP of 121.84 and place BSP of 18.86!! Further work needs to be done in seeing if there is an odds filter that would help, whether place adds/detracts to the profit etc….all fascinating stuff and keeps me off the streets.

    I couldn’t find my way around your site successfully last year when I first tried to find patterns but have always been fascinated by price movements as a possible step to a source of revenue. As you probably gather I spend my time in forming/testing methods/systems etc and over the last year looked at the ATR site where I’m sure you know there is a Market Mover section. Backing all the Selections with an ATR index figure over 1000 since the 24th of June last year to last night shows a win profit to £10 stake at BSP of £1984.68. That’s what inspired me to get back to your site and start looking again……….you have provided me with a lot of fun and I hope some profit, if historical data backs up one or more of the methods.

    Being a realist though I’ve been here before as one enters a system at the peak and suddenly the trough opens up and it’s Bank bust time! Patience and 12 month figures are the key. I used to run two tipping sites but the unrealistic expectations, abuse etc made me stop as, although successful over long term, the aggravation just wasn’t worth the time and effort.

    Talking of troughs yesterday Method 2 lost £70.00, the AW method lost £20.36 and the Brace Of Browns had a £1.65 profit. I think I mentioned on the 25th to you:

    “Overall smile on face job which normally means to-morrow will be a washout! ”

    Got that right! I’ll wait to hear from you.

    Thanks again for a great site and your assistance.

    Lee

  2. Hi Lee,

    Did I get the selections wrong for Method 1 or did you not catch the extra 2 races I’ve included? Also, for Method 2, do you still include a selection if it records any neutral (white) mov/mean/321 values? I’ll start doing some analysis into the 3 approaches over the next few days. Methods 2 and 3 are fairly straightforward to investigate but I’ll probably have to take more of a visual approach to analyse Method 1. How did everything go yesterday?

  3. Hi,

    Many thanks for your reply and the data from yesterday. Looks to be spot on.

    Method 1 uses £10 win and £10 place bets so a missed pair would equate to a £40.00 loss. This is a test at the moment and, although it is profitable thus far, I need to analyse how productive backing the place bets are. My feeling is that it’s possible after a couple of months testing I might just stick to the win only. That raises questions of how the total win stake, ie £20.00 is split when there are low odds. Minimum odds of maybe 2.06 would result in ln profit or no loss or maybe a required profit with the majority of the stake going on the larger odds selection and a zero return on the lowest odds selection so as to protect the Bank. More work to be done but I guess the proof of this method is as to whether historically there are sufficient selections that produce a profitable winner,

    You seem to have got the selections for Method 2 correct and yes the 11.00am is the selected time. I hope that the figures below confirms how I manage the selections. This doesn’t come out in colour obviously and may well not appear correctly. If you want I could e-mail it to you if you let me know the address and think it necessary.

    25/02/13 Runner 11.00am 60Min Mov60 30Min Mov30 15Min Mov15 5Min Mov5 3Min Mov3 2Min Mov2 1Min Mov1 Mean 321 Winner Placed Win BSP Net P/L with
    £10.00 stake

    2.50 Kempton Bridge That Gap 5.4 4.2 2.22 4 2.59 3.7 3.14 3.7 3.14 4 2.59 3.9 2.77 3.9 2.77 2.74 0.25 WON P 3.92 27.74
    3.10 Plumpton Tornado In Milan 3.55 3.4 0.42 3.3 0.7 3.35 0.56 3.15 1.12 3.1 1.26 2.96 1.66 2.88 1.88 1.08 0.7 WON P 2.94 18.43
    3.30 Wolverhampton Wordiness 2.84 2.58 0.91 2.42 1.47 2.46 1.33 2.54 1.05 2.68 0.56 2.6 0.84 2.64 0.7 0.98 0.14 WON P 2.85 17.57
    4.00 Wolverhampton Silver Alliance 4.1 4 0.24 3.95 0.36 3.9 0.48 3.05 2.56 3.15 2.31 3.15 2.31 3.1 2.43 1.52 0.15 -10
    4.10 Plumpton Stop The Show 4.3 3.95 0.81 3.95 0.81 3.8 1.16 3.4 2.09 3.45 1.97 3.45 1.97 3.4 2.09 1.55 0.14 -10
    4.30 Wolverhampton Majeed 3.65 3.15 1.36 3.1 1.5 3.2 1.23 3 1.78 3 1.78 3.1 1.5 3 1.78 1.56 0 WON P 2.94 18.43
    4.40 Plumpton Midnight Lira 10 8.6 1.4 8.6 1.4 8.4 1.59 7 3 5.7 4.3 5.3 4.7 5.3 4.7 3.01 0.7 WON P 5.8 45.6
    4.50 Kempton Line Of Reason 2.82 2.68 0.49 2.62 0.7 2.56 0.92 2.52 1.06 2.32 1.77 2.26 1.98 2.16 2.34 1.32 0.68 P -10
    5.00 Wolverhampton Mumeyez 1.64 1.53 0.67 1.52 0.73 1.51 0.79 1.48 0.97 1.48 0.97 1.45 1.15 1.39 1.52 0.97 0.6 WON P 1.33 3.13
    5.20 Kempton Athletic 4.1 3.8 0.73 3.65 1.09 3.5 1.46 3.35 1.82 3.05 2.56 2.92 2.87 2.76 3.26 1.97 0.95 WON P 2.7 16.15
    5.30 Wolverhampton Tatting 6.2 5.8 0.64 5.1 1.77 4.7 2.41 4 3.54 3.7 4.03 3.4 4.51 3.4 4.51 3.05 0.81 -10

    Total 107.05

    Below is an example of a selection that would not comply as there is a negative figure in the sequence 60 min to Mean.

    3.00 Wolverhampton Flashlight 1.44 1.46 -0.13 1.41 0.2 1.38 0.41 1.38 0.41 1.4 0.27 1.36 0.55 1.35 0.62 0.33 0.35 WON P

    Below is an example of a succesful selection that would comply even though there is a negative figure in the 321 box

    23/02/13
    2-05 Kempton Irish Saint 2.6 2.56 0.15 2.5 0.38 2.44 0.61 2.22 1.46 2.14 1.76 2.24 1.38 2.36 0.92 0.95 -1.02 WON P

    In summary all the Mov boxes should be coloured with positve values, ie Yellow, Light Green or Blue including the Mean and 321 boxes but provided the boxes up to and including the Mean box the 321 box can be Brown

    The profit figure is nett of 5% commission

    Method 3 is correct obviously correct.

    Thanks again for your help and interest,

    kind regards,
    Lee

  4. Hi Lee,

    I’ve done some analysis for your 3 methods using yesterday’s data – can you check that I have the right selections? You can find the results here:

    http://cherrybets.com/JSH20130225.htm

    For the sake of ease I’ve used the 1 minute exchange prices and taken off 5% commission.

    For your first method, do you do £5 win and £5 place for each selection? Also, do you use 11am as the morning comparison time for your second method?

    Just want to make sure I understand everything before diving into the historical data.

    Cheers

  5. Final words for today then I’ll leave you in peace and quiet!!

    No luck with the Brace of Browns today: -£40..00

    Method 2: A profit of £107.05

    AW Favourites method:
    Kempton : Profit of £98.18
    Wolverhampton : Profit of £12.45

    Overall smile on face job which normally means to-morrow will be a washout!

    Finally one other method that I have also monitored since the 29th of Jan is Backing before the off and Laying in running, selections where the Mov1 and Mean are Red, the 321 figure is Brown, and where the BSP odds are between 100 and 300. Those are backed and then layed back to odds of 20 for selections between 100 and 200 and layed at 30 for those between 200 and 300. Hope that makes sense?

    The results for the same period of 24 days show a profit of £637.26 amazingly.

    That’s it ……….I’ll await any information relevant from your historical data.

  6. Many thanks………….a larger batch of historical date would be great.

    Lee

  7. Hi,

    This is great stuff! I’ll have a look at the missing days for you and see if I can analyse a larger batch of historical data for the 3 approaches.

  8. Hi,

    I have been testing a few combinations since the 29th of January, missed results data on the 7th, 17th and yesterday but would be interested if the results over a longer period would bear out the results achieved over these 24 days…….The results have been calculated at £10.00 level stakes at BSP and the totals are the profit achieved.

    Method 1. I call a Brace of Browns whereby all races that show just two Brown 321 figures are backed both Win and Place. In the last 24 days they have produced a profit of £ 2108.86 !! A notable couple occurred on the 19th of Feb when Chicago Grey won the 1.35 at Navan at Win BSP of 76.14-Placed BSP 12.74 and then in the next race at 2.05 On His Own won at 18.56 with the pace at 4.7. Those doubled the profits that day. No sensible reason that I can see that would bring about these results and the pattern would need to be tested over a longer period than 24 days obviously. I would be interested in your thoughts.!

    Method 2. Favourites only where all the Mov figures and Mean and 321 are either Yellow/Blue/Green and also where the 321 only may be Brown and backing Win only at level stake of £10.00 at BSP produced these profits:
    Jan 29th 1
    30 27.52
    31 6.93
    Feb 1st 80.74
    2 25.5
    3 -7.41
    4 -0.93
    5 -8.37
    6 16.83
    8 -9.18
    9 165.26
    10 -18.7
    11 -50
    12 33.24
    13 -35.11
    14 -72.9
    15 105.72
    16 82.33
    18 75.85
    19 27.92
    20 16
    21 4.79
    22 75
    23 90.05 A total of £632.08 Again a short period.

    Finally just since the 16th of Feb:
    AW races only including Dundalk for the period backing the Favourite as shown by the 1Min figure is a recent method and from the 16th of Feb with no filters produced thes eresults::
    16/02/13 Lingfield 47.29
    18/02/13 Wolverhampton 44.26
    19/02/13 Southwell -16.28
    20/02/13 Lingfield -7.6
    Kempton -47.08
    21/02/13 Kempton 82.5
    22/02/13 Lingfield -9.34
    Wolverhampton 127.25
    Dundalk 59.65
    23/02/13 Lingfield -19.22 This totals a profit of £261.43

    I hope I haven’t wasted your time but thought you might be interested in how I attempt to find a profitable way through the maze.

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