A Look At Top-Rated Winners With Big Betfair Starting Prices

Friday 25th January 2013

There have been 9 top-rated winners over the last 2 days:

Wom in the 16:15 at Lingfield yesterday (Betfair SP of 23.34)
South Cape in the 16:35 at Kempton yesterday (BSP of 11.15)
Lookounow in the 15:55 at Gowran Park yesterday (BSP of 10.07)
Storm Runner in the 15:00 at Lingfield on Wednesday (BSP of 3.93)
Consigliere in the 15:10 at Ayr on Wednesday (BSP of 3.63)
Taxiformissbyron in the 18:30 at Kempton on Wednesday (BSP 3.40)
Black Dave in the 14:15 at Lingfield yesterday (BSP of 2.87)
English Summer in the 18:35 at Kempton yesterday (BSP of 2.67)
Foxtrot Jubilee in the 19:00 at Kempton on Wednesday (BSP of 1.24)

18 top-rated selections have placed and 7 races have been won by second or third top-rated selections. To view the overall performance of the top-rated selections, please click here.

There were 3 top-rated winners with double figure Betfair starting prices yesterday. This takes the total number of Cherry Picks top-rated winners with BSPs of 10 or more to 162 since April 2011:

Month – No. Winners With Double Figure BPSs

Apr-2011 – 8
May-2011 – 9
Jun-2011 – 12
Jul-2011 – 5
Aug-2011 – 11
Sep-2011 – 10
Oct-2011 – 12
Nov-2011 – 3
Dec-2011 – 7
Jan-2012 – 3
Feb-2012 – 3
Mar-2012 – 2
Apr-2012 – 12
May-2012 – 6
Jun-2012 – 9
Jul-2012 – 5
Aug-2012 – 9
Sep-2012 – 11
Oct-2012 – 6
Nov-2012 – 7
Dec-2012 – 7
Jan-2013 – 5

Total: 162

Next week we’ll investigate the profitability of concentrating on top-rated selections with double figure Betfair starting prices.

Watch Out For Unusual Betting Activity At Kempton Today

There is a whole card of NH Flat Races at Kempton today and these types of races often throw up some surprising results. Use JustStartHere to keep an eye out for any unusual betting activity.

E-Book System Results – Last 2 Days

Cherry Lays (Recovery) +10.20 points

(+49.80 points amassed in 2013)

Cherry Pips:  -72.00 points

(-154.40 points amassed in 2013)

Full Results (Please note: these 2 systems are not connected to the Cherry Picks ratings)

Suspicious Betting Activity – Horse Racing Outsiders

Wednesday 23rd January 2013

There have been 8 top-rated winners over the last 2 days:

Dixie Gwalia in the 16:05 at Lingfield yesterday (Betfair SP of 12.14)
Maypole Joe in the 15:35 at Wolverhampton on Monday (BSP of 5.60)
Woolfall Sovereign in the 13:50 at Lingfield yesterday (BSP of 3.50)
Hab Reeh in the 15:10 at Wolverhampton yesterday (BSP of 3.25)
Harry Buckle in the 13:20 at Lingfield yesterday (BSP of 3.15)
Mubtadi in the 14:25 at Lingfield yesterday (BSP of 2.36)
Dorothy’s Dancing in the 14:55 at Lingfield yesterday (BSP of 2.11)
Ashamaly in the 14:35 at Wolverhampton yesterday (BSP of 6.68)

10 top-rated selections have placed and 4 races have been won by second or third top-rated selections.

E-Book System Results – Last 2 Days

Cherry Lays (Recovery) -4.20 points

(+39.60 points amassed in 2013)

Cherry Pips:  0.00 points

(-82.40 points amassed in 2013)

Full Results (Please note: these 2 systems are not connected to the Cherry Picks ratings)

Suspicious Betting Activity – Horse Racing Outsiders

Following on from our observations last Wednesday, another couple of outsiders attracted late money yesterday only to drift back out again just before the off.

The betting exchange odds for Edgware Road in the 17:10 at Wolverhampton came in from 26 to 18.5 between 5 and 3 minutes before post time (see movement value outlined in red on the screenshot below), only to then drift back our again to 25 at 1 minute before the off. This caused it to record a noticeably high negative value of -3.51 on JustStartHere. Always look out for suspicious late betting activity like this – the horse went on to be beaten by a neck (Betfair SP of 29, place SP of 5.92):

Unusual Betting PatternsClick on image above to enlarge

Earlier on, the betting exchange odds for Even Stevens steamed in from 48 to 30 between 15 minutes and 3 minutes before the start of the 13:50 at Lingfield, only to then drift out again (see screenshot below). It recorded the highest negative 321 rating in the race on JustStartHere and went on to be beaten by half a length (Betfair place SP of 7.2).

Unusual Betting PatternsClick on image above to enlarge

Always ask yourself this when monitoring the prices just before post time – if a horse has recorded a high negative 321 value, is it part of a general drifting pattern or is it because lots of late money went on it prior to 3 minutes before the off to make the drift appear artificially large? If it’s the latter, take note!

Click here to watch the horse racing price movement drama unfold today at Ayr, Kempton, Lingfield & Limerick

Watch Out For Outsiders That Have Attracted Late Money

Wednesday 16th January 2013

There have been 7 top-rated winners over the last 2 days:

Idol Deputy in the 17:30 at Wolverhampton yesterday (BSP of 4.50)
Hazard Warning in the 14:20 at Wolverhampton on Monday (4.17)
Shaking Hands in the 13:40 at Ffos Las on yesterday (BSP of 4.02)
Killimore Cottage in the 15:05 at Lingfield yesterday (BSP of 3.27)
Pairumani Prince in the 15:30 at Lingfield on Monday (BSP of 2.78)
Double Dash in the 15:35 at Lingfield yesterday (BSP of 2.60)
Sweet Liberta in the 14:00 at Lingfield on Monday (BSP of 2.13)

13 top-rated selections have placed & 8 races have been won by second or third top-rated selections.

E-Book System Results – Last 2 Days

Cherry Lays (Recovery) -3.00 points

(+34.80 points amassed in 2013)

Cherry Pips:  -28.80 points

(-95.50 points amassed in 2013)

Full Results (Please note: these 2 systems are not connected to the Cherry Picks ratings)

More Unusual Betting Patterns To Look Out For

Another horse caught my eye on JustStartHere yesterday – one that may surprise you. Miserere Mei recorded a normally off-putting high negative 321 value of -3.33 but that was AFTER the price had steamed in from 25 to 15 between 15 minutes and 3 minutes before post time (the notable price movements are highlighted in red on the screenshot below):

Unusual Betting Patterns
Click on image above to enlarge

The horse drifted massively during the last 3 minutes before the off but this has to be weighed up against the fact that it was gambled on very heavily during the previous 12 minutes or so. Either way, you should always take note when a a big outsider attracts such a flurry of betting activity.

As it turned out, Miserere Mei (Betfair SP of 21.37) came third in a race where the top 3 were separated by 2 necks. It was a close run thing but the Betfair SP place odds were still a generous 5.17. When it comes to backing outsiders in these scenarios, I would always recommend a conservative approach – i.e. backing them each way or to place.

Watch out for unusual betting patterns today on JustStartHere

How Do We Personally Use The Price Movement Data Provided By JustStartHere?

I had a bit of time to kill on my lunchbreak today so I logged into my JustStartHere account and had a quick look at the steamers and drifters in the upcoming race (the 13:30 at Lingfield). I noticed that 2 outsiders (Polarity & Big Kahuna) had attracted a bit of money during the last 3 minutes before post time. In fact, they recorded the 2 highest positive 321 values in the race on  JustStartHere (highlighted in red on the screenshot below):

Horse Racing SteamersClick on image above to enlarge

Seeing that the race had 8 runners (meaning 3 place positions), and that the odds were good, I decided to put £2 on each of them to place:

Betfair ScreenClick on image above to enlarge

Polarity duly came third with an enormous Betfair place SP of 65.26 and netted me a profit of £120.19 after commission:

Betfair WinningsClick on image above to enlarge

We receive a lot of emails asking how we personally use the JustStartHere information and this demonstrates our approach perfectly. It is important to be selective and look for value. In this race the 3 favourites were odds-on to place yet the 2 biggest positive 321 ratings on JSH were recorded by 2 outsiders. All it takes is for one of the top 3 in the betting to run a bad race and for one of the 2 outsiders that have been backed during the last 3 minutes before post time to show why they have attracted late money. As it turned out, this is exactly what transpired and a £4 outlay returned a profit of £120.

You don’t have to try and force an angle in every single race – just pick the ones where you think there’s value to be had. Nor do you have to sit and follow a system all day, every day to make use of the data. At just £6 per month the service still provides value for money if you only use it in the evenings, at weekends or whenever you get the chance to follow the racing. Indeed, the profit I made in this race covers a 20 month subscription to the service.

Click on the button below to monitor unusual betting patterns in all UK & Irish horse racing markets with JustStartHere:

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Use Our Horse Racing Ratings To Find Horses That Have Been Priced Up Generously By The Bookies

Wednesday 26th September 2012

There have been 5 top-rated winners over the last 2 days:

Fromajacktoaking in the 16:35 at Fairyhouse on Monday (BSP of 5.25)
Monopoli in the 16:30 at Leicester on Monday (BSP of 4.90)
Intransigent in the 16:20 at Kempton on Monday (BSP of 3.74)
Authentication in the 16:00 at Folkestone yesterday (BSP of 2.01)
Minella Stars in the 15:50 at Newton Abbot yesterday (BSP of 1.97)

12 top-rated selections have placed and 8 races have been won by second or third top-rated horses.

The method of using the Cherry Picks ratings mentioned on Friday produced another big priced winner yesterday - Pass The Time in the 17:00 at Folkestone (Betfair SP of 30). The return of +120.84 points after Betfair commission for the approach so far in September compares very favourably with that of backing just the top-rated selections to win (-30.27 points) or backing every top 3 rated selection to win (-66.38 points).

The logic behind the system lies in trying to find discrepancies between our ratings and the odds. Basically if one of our top 3 selections isn’t in the top 3 of the betting, it suggests it’s been generously priced by the bookies.

JustStartHere subscribers can access the Cherry Picks ratings 7 days a week. If you would like to sign up to the service, please click here. If your membership has expired and you would like to reactivate your account, simply log in here with your existing username and password and click on the PayPal button to restart your subscription.

E-Book System Results – Last 2 Days

Cherry Lays (Recovery) +5 points

(358.54 points amassed in 2012)

Cherry Pips:  +8.1 points

(465.80 points amassed in 2012)

Full Results (Please note: these 2 systems are not connected to our ratings)