A Look At Top-Rated Winners With Big Betfair Starting Prices

Friday 25th January 2013

There have been 9 top-rated winners over the last 2 days:

Wom in the 16:15 at Lingfield yesterday (Betfair SP of 23.34)
South Cape in the 16:35 at Kempton yesterday (BSP of 11.15)
Lookounow in the 15:55 at Gowran Park yesterday (BSP of 10.07)
Storm Runner in the 15:00 at Lingfield on Wednesday (BSP of 3.93)
Consigliere in the 15:10 at Ayr on Wednesday (BSP of 3.63)
Taxiformissbyron in the 18:30 at Kempton on Wednesday (BSP 3.40)
Black Dave in the 14:15 at Lingfield yesterday (BSP of 2.87)
English Summer in the 18:35 at Kempton yesterday (BSP of 2.67)
Foxtrot Jubilee in the 19:00 at Kempton on Wednesday (BSP of 1.24)

18 top-rated selections have placed and 7 races have been won by second or third top-rated selections. To view the overall performance of the top-rated selections, please click here.

There were 3 top-rated winners with double figure Betfair starting prices yesterday. This takes the total number of Cherry Picks top-rated winners with BSPs of 10 or more to 162 since April 2011:

Month – No. Winners With Double Figure BPSs

Apr-2011 – 8
May-2011 – 9
Jun-2011 – 12
Jul-2011 – 5
Aug-2011 – 11
Sep-2011 – 10
Oct-2011 – 12
Nov-2011 – 3
Dec-2011 – 7
Jan-2012 – 3
Feb-2012 – 3
Mar-2012 – 2
Apr-2012 – 12
May-2012 – 6
Jun-2012 – 9
Jul-2012 – 5
Aug-2012 – 9
Sep-2012 – 11
Oct-2012 – 6
Nov-2012 – 7
Dec-2012 – 7
Jan-2013 – 5

Total: 162

Next week we’ll investigate the profitability of concentrating on top-rated selections with double figure Betfair starting prices.

Watch Out For Unusual Betting Activity At Kempton Today

There is a whole card of NH Flat Races at Kempton today and these types of races often throw up some surprising results. Use JustStartHere to keep an eye out for any unusual betting activity.

E-Book System Results – Last 2 Days

Cherry Lays (Recovery) +10.20 points

(+49.80 points amassed in 2013)

Cherry Pips:  -72.00 points

(-154.40 points amassed in 2013)

Full Results (Please note: these 2 systems are not connected to the Cherry Picks ratings)

Suspicious Betting Activity – Horse Racing Outsiders

Wednesday 23rd January 2013

There have been 8 top-rated winners over the last 2 days:

Dixie Gwalia in the 16:05 at Lingfield yesterday (Betfair SP of 12.14)
Maypole Joe in the 15:35 at Wolverhampton on Monday (BSP of 5.60)
Woolfall Sovereign in the 13:50 at Lingfield yesterday (BSP of 3.50)
Hab Reeh in the 15:10 at Wolverhampton yesterday (BSP of 3.25)
Harry Buckle in the 13:20 at Lingfield yesterday (BSP of 3.15)
Mubtadi in the 14:25 at Lingfield yesterday (BSP of 2.36)
Dorothy’s Dancing in the 14:55 at Lingfield yesterday (BSP of 2.11)
Ashamaly in the 14:35 at Wolverhampton yesterday (BSP of 6.68)

10 top-rated selections have placed and 4 races have been won by second or third top-rated selections.

E-Book System Results – Last 2 Days

Cherry Lays (Recovery) -4.20 points

(+39.60 points amassed in 2013)

Cherry Pips:  0.00 points

(-82.40 points amassed in 2013)

Full Results (Please note: these 2 systems are not connected to the Cherry Picks ratings)

Suspicious Betting Activity – Horse Racing Outsiders

Following on from our observations last Wednesday, another couple of outsiders attracted late money yesterday only to drift back out again just before the off.

The betting exchange odds for Edgware Road in the 17:10 at Wolverhampton came in from 26 to 18.5 between 5 and 3 minutes before post time (see movement value outlined in red on the screenshot below), only to then drift back our again to 25 at 1 minute before the off. This caused it to record a noticeably high negative value of -3.51 on JustStartHere. Always look out for suspicious late betting activity like this – the horse went on to be beaten by a neck (Betfair SP of 29, place SP of 5.92):

Unusual Betting PatternsClick on image above to enlarge

Earlier on, the betting exchange odds for Even Stevens steamed in from 48 to 30 between 15 minutes and 3 minutes before the start of the 13:50 at Lingfield, only to then drift out again (see screenshot below). It recorded the highest negative 321 rating in the race on JustStartHere and went on to be beaten by half a length (Betfair place SP of 7.2).

Unusual Betting PatternsClick on image above to enlarge

Always ask yourself this when monitoring the prices just before post time – if a horse has recorded a high negative 321 value, is it part of a general drifting pattern or is it because lots of late money went on it prior to 3 minutes before the off to make the drift appear artificially large? If it’s the latter, take note!

Click here to watch the horse racing price movement drama unfold today at Ayr, Kempton, Lingfield & Limerick