Backing Big Early Horse Racing Steamers To Place

Wednesday 30th January 2013

There have been 7 top-rated winners over the last 2 days:

Prince James in the 17:00 at Wolverhampton yesterday (BSP of 7.02)
Irene Kennet in the 14:50 at Kempton on Monday (BSP of 6.60)
Compton Rainbow in the 16:50 at Kempton on Monday (BSP of 3.96)
Naru in the 16:40 at Wolverhampton on Monday (BSP of 3.54)
Hepworth in the 17:10 at Wolverhampton on Monday (BSP of 3.20)
Hab Reeth in the 13:40 at Wolverhampton on Monday (BSP of 2.69)
Stand Guard in the 15:00 at Wolverhampton yesterday (BSP of 1.15)

11
 top-rated selections have placed and 4 races have been won by second or third top-rated selections.

Backing Big Early Horse Racing Steamers To Place

Not everyone is able to monitor the racing right up until 1 minute before the off for every race. With this in mind, we spent some time investigating the earlier price movements on JustStartHere to see if there were any profitable betting angles to be found.

One pattern jumped out straight away – the biggest stand out 60 minute steamers in 3 out of the opening 4 races on Monday went on to place with big Betfair place odds. By “stand out” we mean green or blue steamers – i.e. horses that have recorded Mov values in excess of +2.5 (green) or +5(blue). The Mov60 values for the biggest “stand out” steamers in the 3 races mentioned are outlined in red on the screenshot below:

Early SteamersClick on image above to enlarge

Using 11am as the morning comparison time on JustStartHere, backing only the biggest green or blue Mov60 steamer in each race to place over the last 2 days would have returned a profit of 43.32 points after commission (based on Betfair place SPs). The full results are listed below:

Date Race Horse 11am Price 60 Min Price Mov60 Value Result Betfair Place SP Returns
28/01 13:40 Wolverhampton Bachelor Knight 36.00 25.00 +3.05 P 3.14
28/01 13:50 Kempton Kindia 110.00 65.00 +4.09 P 32.40
28/01 14:10 Wolverhampton Script 46.00 30.00 +3.47 P 8.00
28/01 15:10 Wolverhampton King Wood 27.00 7.00 +7.40 L -1.00
28/01 15:20 Kempton Saffron Park 50.00 26.00 +4.80 L -1.00
28/01 16:20 Kempton Reflect 14.00 8.40 +3.99 W 1.83
28/01 16:40 Wolverhampton Lucky Mountain 19.00 12.00 +3.68 L -1.00
28/01 17:10 Wolverhampton Mediterranean Sea 17.50 12.50 +2.85 L -1.00
29/01 13:20 Lingfield Maid Of Oaksey 29.00 18.00 +3.79 L -1.00
29/01 16:20 Lingfield Oscars Den 7.80 4.50 +4.23 W 1.43
29/01 17:30 Wolverhampton Ace Master 9.00 5.40 +3.99 P 1.52
Total: 43.32

Early days yet, but this approach could well be worth some further investigation – especially for those who prefer to get their bets on a bit earlier than 1 minute before the off. We’ll keep an eye on results over the next few days and look to analyse the historical performance of the system over a longer period of time.

Click here to start developing your own horse racing price movement betting systems with JustStartHere

Suspicious Betting Activity – Horse Racing Outsiders

Wednesday 23rd January 2013

There have been 8 top-rated winners over the last 2 days:

Dixie Gwalia in the 16:05 at Lingfield yesterday (Betfair SP of 12.14)
Maypole Joe in the 15:35 at Wolverhampton on Monday (BSP of 5.60)
Woolfall Sovereign in the 13:50 at Lingfield yesterday (BSP of 3.50)
Hab Reeh in the 15:10 at Wolverhampton yesterday (BSP of 3.25)
Harry Buckle in the 13:20 at Lingfield yesterday (BSP of 3.15)
Mubtadi in the 14:25 at Lingfield yesterday (BSP of 2.36)
Dorothy’s Dancing in the 14:55 at Lingfield yesterday (BSP of 2.11)
Ashamaly in the 14:35 at Wolverhampton yesterday (BSP of 6.68)

10 top-rated selections have placed and 4 races have been won by second or third top-rated selections.

E-Book System Results – Last 2 Days

Cherry Lays (Recovery) -4.20 points

(+39.60 points amassed in 2013)

Cherry Pips:  0.00 points

(-82.40 points amassed in 2013)

Full Results (Please note: these 2 systems are not connected to the Cherry Picks ratings)

Suspicious Betting Activity – Horse Racing Outsiders

Following on from our observations last Wednesday, another couple of outsiders attracted late money yesterday only to drift back out again just before the off.

The betting exchange odds for Edgware Road in the 17:10 at Wolverhampton came in from 26 to 18.5 between 5 and 3 minutes before post time (see movement value outlined in red on the screenshot below), only to then drift back our again to 25 at 1 minute before the off. This caused it to record a noticeably high negative value of -3.51 on JustStartHere. Always look out for suspicious late betting activity like this – the horse went on to be beaten by a neck (Betfair SP of 29, place SP of 5.92):

Unusual Betting PatternsClick on image above to enlarge

Earlier on, the betting exchange odds for Even Stevens steamed in from 48 to 30 between 15 minutes and 3 minutes before the start of the 13:50 at Lingfield, only to then drift out again (see screenshot below). It recorded the highest negative 321 rating in the race on JustStartHere and went on to be beaten by half a length (Betfair place SP of 7.2).

Unusual Betting PatternsClick on image above to enlarge

Always ask yourself this when monitoring the prices just before post time – if a horse has recorded a high negative 321 value, is it part of a general drifting pattern or is it because lots of late money went on it prior to 3 minutes before the off to make the drift appear artificially large? If it’s the latter, take note!

Click here to watch the horse racing price movement drama unfold today at Ayr, Kempton, Lingfield & Limerick