30 races have been won by second or third top rated horses and 57 top-rated selections have placed including Connectivity in the 15:15 at Uttoxeter on Saturday with Betfair place SP of 7.09, Solaras Exhibition in the 17:15 at Lingfield on Saturday with a Betfair place SP of 7.00 and Doctor Hilary in the 19:50 at Wolverhampton on Saturday with a Betfair place SP of 5.54. Were it not for the latter being beaten by a neck, it would have been a clean sweep for the top-rated selections at Wolverhampton on Saturday night – the other 6 all won. To view the overall performance of the top-rated selections, please click here.
Since the beginning of March, backing every top-rated selection to win has returned a profit of 33.28 points, backing them to place has returned a profit of 24.80 points and dutching the top 3 in every race has returned a profit of 32.93 points - a total profit of 91.01 points after commission (based on Betfair SPs).
Bobs Worth landed the Cheltenham Gold Cup (photo: Sporting Life)
At Fishers Cross was victorious in the Albert Bartlett (photo: Sporting Life)
Overall there were 7 top-rated winners from 20 rated races at Cheltenham this year – a 35% win rate. Backing every top-rated selection to win would have returned a level stakes profit of 12.61 points after commission (based on Betfair SPs) – a cracking result.
The win rate jumps up to 37% (10 winners out of 27 races), and the returns up to 16.17 points if you include backing the top-rated selections in races featuring unrated horses. Please note: Cherry Picks ratings for EVERY UK & Irish race can be accessed from the daily racecard download on JustStartHere (see the “REALCPRATING” column).
Well done to Charles from London who placed an £8 tricast bet on the top 3 rated Cherry Picks selections in the Gold Cup and won £304. How did you get on at Cheltenham this year?
There have been 6 top-rated winners over the last 3 days:
- Across The Bayin the 14:20 at Haydock on Saturday (BSP of 13.00)
- Cloudy Too in the 16:05 at Haydock on Saturday (BSP of 5.50)
- Solar Deityin the 16:00 at Lingfield on Saturday (BSP of 4.15)
- Heronry in the 16:05 at Sandown on Friday (BSP of 3.55)
- Hillbilly Boyin the 12:40 at Lingfield on Saturday (BSP of 2.03)
- Zarkandarin the 15:35 at Wincanton on Saturday (BSP of 1.39)
Odds-on favourite Zarkandar ran out a ready winner of the Grade Two Bathwick Tyres Kingwell Hurdle at Wincanton (photo: Sporting Life)
Across The Bay showed admirable resolution from the front to win the Rendlesham Hurdle at Haydock Park (photo: Sporting Life)
12 top-rated selections have placed and 6 races have been won by second or third top-rated selections.
There have been 15 top-rated winners over the last 2 days:
- Chelsea Greyin the 18:50 at Kempton on Wednesday (BSP of 15.68)
- Canary Wharf in the 17:20 at Kempton on Wednesday (BSP of 5.04)
- Gorgehous Lliegein the 15:50 at Towcester yesterday (BSP of 4.55)
- Drussellin the 15:40 at Ludlow on Wednesday (BSP of 4.10)
- Jack My Boyin the 16:30 at Lingfield yesterday (BSP of 3.30)
- Young Jackiein the 18:20 at Wolverhampton yesterday (BSP of 2.92)
- Arthur’s Passin the 16:30 at Leicester on Wednesday (BSP of 2.77)
- Valdawin the 15:00 at Lingfield yesterday (BSP of 2.37)
- Mick Dundeein the 14:00 at Lingfield yesterday (BSP of 2.10)
- Buddy Boleroin the 15:30 at Leicester on Wednesday (BSP of 2.06)
- Prophets Pride in the 19:50 at Kempton on Wednesday (BSP of 1.94)
- Taxiformissbyronin the 19:50 at Wolverhampton yesterday (BSP of 1.86)
- Thunderstormin the 14:20 at Towcester yesterday (BSP of 1.77)
- Whispering Warriorin the 16:00 at Lingfield yesterday (BSP of 1.49)
21 top-rated selections have placed and 7 races have been won by second or third top-rated selections including Royal Bajan who won the 18:50 at Wolverhampton yesterday with a Betfair SP of 30.21, Sir Dylan who won the 17:50 at Wolverhampton yesterday with a Betfair SP of 16.55 and Master Overseer who the 15:10 at Wincanton yesterday with a Betfair SP of 15.51.
*With regards to the investigation into top-rated picks with double figure odds, we’re gradually working our way through the 10,000+ selections – hopefully we’ll have some comprehensive findings soon.
Horse Racing Market Movers
The 60 minute steamer system discussed on Wednesday made a profit of 5.06 pointsafter commission on Wednesday and a loss of 4.33 points after commission yesterday (returns based on Betfair place starting prices). We’ll continue to keep an eye on how the approach fares over the next few days.
A couple of stand out steamers did well at Ludlow on Wednesday. Midnight Belle was the only blue steamer on JustStartHere in the 14:40 before going on to win the race with a Betfair SP of 11.26 and Big News recorded the biggest positive Mov1 and 321 values in the 14:10 before going on to place with a Betfair place SP of 11.35:
There have been 2 top-rated winners over the last 3 days:
- Spiferin the 14:55 at Kempton on Saturday (Betfair SP of 6.68)
- Tennis Cap in the 15:20 at Naas on Saturday (Betfair SP of 4.28)
5 top-rated selections have placed including Lady Lyrath (Betfair SP of25, place SP of 6.41), who was beaten into second by half a length in the 20:50 at Dundalk on Friday. 4 races have been won by second or third top-rated selections. To view the overall performance of the top-rated selections, please click here.
Cherry Pips: 0.00 points (-82.40 points amassed in 2013)
Top-Rated Cherry Picks Day Of The Week Analysis
Many of you have written in recently asking how the top-rated selections fare on the different days of the week. Seeing as how the weather has played havoc with the racing schedule over the last few days, we thought we’d carry out some analysis. Here are the findings:
No. Winning Days
Unsurprisingly then, Saturday comes out on top. The quality of horse racing is generally better on Saturdays and this makes predicting winners a whole lot easier. Thursday is the day to avoid it seems!
If you have any Cherry Picks analysis requests, please don’t hesitate to get in contact (firstname.lastname@example.org) – we’d be more than happy to take a look for you if we can.
There have been 7 top-rated winners over the last 4 days and, tellingly, 20 second or third top-rated winners. To view the overall performance of our top-rated selections, please click here and scroll down to the Cherry Picks results table.
PLEASE NOTE: If you would like to access the ratings 7 days a week, please sign up to our horse racing price monitoring site JustStartHere - subscription costs £6 per month via PayPal. The ratings are available to download in PDF and Excel format direct from the website every morning from about 8am.
Cherry Pips: +22.4 points (1,787.66 points amassed since Jan 2010)
Full Results (Please note: these 2 systems are not connected to our ratings)
Notable Late Steamer Yesterday
Millieann won the 14:35 at Cork yesterday after steaming in considerably during the last 3 minutes before post time. It came in from a 3 minute price of 55 to a 1 minute price of 44 and recorded a high positive 321 value of 2 on JustStartHere (outlined in red on the screenshot below). It’s also worth noting the unusual overall price movement – at one time the price dropped all the way down to 13.5 before drifting back out to 50.
Please Note: You can view this image in more detail by right-clicking on it and selecting “Open image in new tab”. Alternatively you can zoom in and out by holding the Ctrl key and pressing + or -.
Watch out for unusual betting patterns today:
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Best of luck!