Horse Racing Market Movers That Tick All The Boxes

Wednesday 6th February 2013

There have been 4 top-rated winners over the last 2 days:

Aubrietia in the 15:40 at Southwell yesterday (Betfair SP of 6.01)
Winds And Waves in the 15:00 at Market Rasen yesterday (BSP of 5.55)
Gallox Bridge in the 14:30 at Market Rasen yesterday (BSP of 2.96)
Stand Guard in the 14:40 at Southwell yesterday (BSP of 1.57)

6 top-rated selections have placed and 6 races have been won by second or third top-rated selections. To view the overall performance of the top-rated selections, please click here.

Market Movers That Tick All The Boxes

The 7 horses listed below all recorded the highest positive Mov1, Mean & 321 values in their respective races on JustStartHere - the only 7 to do so over the last 2 days:

Le Reve in the 14:00 at Market Rasen yesterday (W)
Bartley in the 14:10 at Southwell yesterday (P)
Unzing in the 14:25 at Fairyhouse yesterday (P)
Smart Money in the 14:55 at Fairyhouse yesterday (W)
Sans Loi in the 15:40 at Southwell yesterday (L)
Helloin the 16:30 at Market Rasen yesterday (W)
Discay in the 16:40 at Southwell yesterday (W)

Out of the 7, 4 went on to win (57%) and 6 went on to place (86%). Backing them all to win would have returned a profit of 13.60 points after commission (based on Betfair SPs) and backing them all to place would have returned a profit of 12.91 points after commission (based on Betfair place SPs).

If a horse ticks all 3 boxes of being the biggest overall (Mov1), average (Mean) & late (321) steamer in a race, it’s definitely worth taking note.

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Watch Out For Outsiders That Have Attracted Late Money

Wednesday 16th January 2013

There have been 7 top-rated winners over the last 2 days:

Idol Deputy in the 17:30 at Wolverhampton yesterday (BSP of 4.50)
Hazard Warning in the 14:20 at Wolverhampton on Monday (4.17)
Shaking Hands in the 13:40 at Ffos Las on yesterday (BSP of 4.02)
Killimore Cottage in the 15:05 at Lingfield yesterday (BSP of 3.27)
Pairumani Prince in the 15:30 at Lingfield on Monday (BSP of 2.78)
Double Dash in the 15:35 at Lingfield yesterday (BSP of 2.60)
Sweet Liberta in the 14:00 at Lingfield on Monday (BSP of 2.13)

13 top-rated selections have placed & 8 races have been won by second or third top-rated selections.

E-Book System Results – Last 2 Days

Cherry Lays (Recovery) -3.00 points

(+34.80 points amassed in 2013)

Cherry Pips:  -28.80 points

(-95.50 points amassed in 2013)

Full Results (Please note: these 2 systems are not connected to the Cherry Picks ratings)

More Unusual Betting Patterns To Look Out For

Another horse caught my eye on JustStartHere yesterday – one that may surprise you. Miserere Mei recorded a normally off-putting high negative 321 value of -3.33 but that was AFTER the price had steamed in from 25 to 15 between 15 minutes and 3 minutes before post time (the notable price movements are highlighted in red on the screenshot below):

Unusual Betting Patterns
Click on image above to enlarge

The horse drifted massively during the last 3 minutes before the off but this has to be weighed up against the fact that it was gambled on very heavily during the previous 12 minutes or so. Either way, you should always take note when a a big outsider attracts such a flurry of betting activity.

As it turned out, Miserere Mei (Betfair SP of 21.37) came third in a race where the top 3 were separated by 2 necks. It was a close run thing but the Betfair SP place odds were still a generous 5.17. When it comes to backing outsiders in these scenarios, I would always recommend a conservative approach – i.e. backing them each way or to place.

Watch out for unusual betting patterns today on JustStartHere

How Do We Personally Use The Price Movement Data Provided By JustStartHere?

I had a bit of time to kill on my lunchbreak today so I logged into my JustStartHere account and had a quick look at the steamers and drifters in the upcoming race (the 13:30 at Lingfield). I noticed that 2 outsiders (Polarity & Big Kahuna) had attracted a bit of money during the last 3 minutes before post time. In fact, they recorded the 2 highest positive 321 values in the race on  JustStartHere (highlighted in red on the screenshot below):

Horse Racing SteamersClick on image above to enlarge

Seeing that the race had 8 runners (meaning 3 place positions), and that the odds were good, I decided to put £2 on each of them to place:

Betfair ScreenClick on image above to enlarge

Polarity duly came third with an enormous Betfair place SP of 65.26 and netted me a profit of £120.19 after commission:

Betfair WinningsClick on image above to enlarge

We receive a lot of emails asking how we personally use the JustStartHere information and this demonstrates our approach perfectly. It is important to be selective and look for value. In this race the 3 favourites were odds-on to place yet the 2 biggest positive 321 ratings on JSH were recorded by 2 outsiders. All it takes is for one of the top 3 in the betting to run a bad race and for one of the 2 outsiders that have been backed during the last 3 minutes before post time to show why they have attracted late money. As it turned out, this is exactly what transpired and a £4 outlay returned a profit of £120.

You don’t have to try and force an angle in every single race – just pick the ones where you think there’s value to be had. Nor do you have to sit and follow a system all day, every day to make use of the data. At just £6 per month the service still provides value for money if you only use it in the evenings, at weekends or whenever you get the chance to follow the racing. Indeed, the profit I made in this race covers a 20 month subscription to the service.

Click on the button below to monitor unusual betting patterns in all UK & Irish horse racing markets with JustStartHere:

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Free Ratings For Today’s Racing At Lingfield, Newbury, Ludlow & Kempton

Wednesday 19th December 2012

There have been 6 top-rated winners over the last 2 days:

Stow in the 14:15 at Ffos Las on Monday (Betfair SP of 5.46)
Benheir in the 14:45 at Ffos Las on Monday (Betfair SP of 4.62)
Thunderstorm in the 15:35 at Plumpton on Monday (Betfair SP of 3.68)
On The Hoof in the 17:25 at Wolverhampton on Monday (BSP of 2.35)
Ballyman in the 15:05 at Plumpton on Monday (Betfair SP of 2.07)
La Estrella in the 15:25 at Wolverhampton on Monday (BSP of 1.65)

17 top-rated selections have placed and 9 races have been won by second or third top-rated selections including Emirate Isle who won the 14:40 at Catterick yesterday with a huge Betfair starting price of 38.28. To view the overall performance of the top-rated selections, please click here.

E-Book System Results – Last 2 Days

Cherry Lays (Recovery) +7.00 points

(348.16 points amassed in 2012)

Cherry Pips:  +14.30 points

(565.70 points amassed in 2012)

Full Results (Please note: these 2 systems are not connected to the Cherry Picks ratings)

Free Ratings For Today’s Racing At Wolverhampton, Plumpton & Ffos Las

Monday 17th December 2012

There have been 18 top-rated winners over the last 3 days:

Master Overseer in the 13:55 at Cheltenham on Friday (BSP of 12.20)
Red Eight in the 14:10 at Wolverhampton on Saturday (BSP of 7.80)
Robbie in the 13:35 at Doncaster on Saturday (BSP of 6.37)
No No Bingo in the 14:10 at Hereford yesterday (BSP of 5.05)
Nant Season in the 14:05 at Wolverhampton on Saturday (BSP of 4.38)
Shooters Wood in the 13:20 at Cheltenham on Saturday (BSP of 3.80)
Strong Man in the 19:20 at Wolverhampton on Friday (BSP of 3.77)
Forest Edge in the 20:50 at Wolverhampton on Saturday (BSP of 3.59)
Dusky Bob in the 12:50 at Musselburgh yesterday (BSP of 3.05)
Tanerko Emery in the 13:10 at Lingfield on Saturday (BSP of 2.90)
Captain Joy in the 19:00 at Dundalk on Friday (BSP of 2.78)
Apt Approach in the 14:25 at Fairyhouse on Saturday (BSP of 2.55)
Flying Award in the 13:00 at Bangor on Friday (BSP of 2.27)
Small Fury in the 15:50 at Wolverhampton on Friday (BSP of 2.23)
Zarkandar in the 15:05 at Cheltenham on Saturday (BSP of 2.17)
Farmleigh House in the 19:30 at Dundalk on Friday (BSP of 2.12)
Real Milan in the 15:00 at Carlisle yesterday (BSP of 2.09)
Oscar Whisky in the 15:40 at Cheltenham on Saturday (BSP of 1.24)

Zarkandar holds off the threat of Grandouet (right) and Rock On Ruby (left) in the Stanjames.com International HurdleZarkandar held off the threat of Grandouet
and Rock On Ruby in the Stanjames.com
International Hurdle (photo: Sporting Life)

Oscar Whisky had little difficulty in recording back-to-back wins in the Osborne House Relkeel Hurdle at CheltenhamOscar Whisky had little difficulty in recording back-to-back wins in the Osborne House Relkeel Hurdle (photo: Sporting Life)

Shooters Wood got back up under Ruby Walsh in a thrillerShooters Wood scrambled home in the Jenny Mould Memorial Handicap Chase (photo: Sporting Life) 

30 top-rated selections have placed and 13 races have been won by second or third top-rated selections. To view the overall performance of the top-rated selections, please click here.

E-Book System Results – Last 3 Days

Cherry Lays (Recovery) +8.00 points

(341.16 points amassed in 2012)

Cherry Pips:  -27.60 points

(551.40 points amassed in 2012)

Full Results (Please note: these 2 systems are not connected to the Cherry Picks ratings)