Watch Out For Outsiders That Have Attracted Late Money

Wednesday 16th January 2013

There have been 7 top-rated winners over the last 2 days:

Idol Deputy in the 17:30 at Wolverhampton yesterday (BSP of 4.50)
Hazard Warning in the 14:20 at Wolverhampton on Monday (4.17)
Shaking Hands in the 13:40 at Ffos Las on yesterday (BSP of 4.02)
Killimore Cottage in the 15:05 at Lingfield yesterday (BSP of 3.27)
Pairumani Prince in the 15:30 at Lingfield on Monday (BSP of 2.78)
Double Dash in the 15:35 at Lingfield yesterday (BSP of 2.60)
Sweet Liberta in the 14:00 at Lingfield on Monday (BSP of 2.13)

13 top-rated selections have placed & 8 races have been won by second or third top-rated selections.

E-Book System Results – Last 2 Days

Cherry Lays (Recovery) -3.00 points

(+34.80 points amassed in 2013)

Cherry Pips:  -28.80 points

(-95.50 points amassed in 2013)

Full Results (Please note: these 2 systems are not connected to the Cherry Picks ratings)

More Unusual Betting Patterns To Look Out For

Another horse caught my eye on JustStartHere yesterday – one that may surprise you. Miserere Mei recorded a normally off-putting high negative 321 value of -3.33 but that was AFTER the price had steamed in from 25 to 15 between 15 minutes and 3 minutes before post time (the notable price movements are highlighted in red on the screenshot below):

Unusual Betting Patterns
Click on image above to enlarge

The horse drifted massively during the last 3 minutes before the off but this has to be weighed up against the fact that it was gambled on very heavily during the previous 12 minutes or so. Either way, you should always take note when a a big outsider attracts such a flurry of betting activity.

As it turned out, Miserere Mei (Betfair SP of 21.37) came third in a race where the top 3 were separated by 2 necks. It was a close run thing but the Betfair SP place odds were still a generous 5.17. When it comes to backing outsiders in these scenarios, I would always recommend a conservative approach – i.e. backing them each way or to place.

Watch out for unusual betting patterns today on JustStartHere

A Slight Tweak To A Betting System Can Make A Big Difference…

Friday 23rd November 2012

There have been 6 top-rated winners over the last 2 days:

Ancient Greece in the 16:30 at Kempton on Wednesday (BSP of 21.52)
Percythepinto in the 13:30 at Lingfield on Wednesday (BSP of 5.28)
Rupert Bear in the 15:40 at Hexham on Wednesday (BSP of 4.20)
Shakhees Rose in the 16:40 at Kempton yesterday (BSP of 3.97)
Samson Collonges in the 15:10 at Hexham on Wednesday (2.85)
Mutual Regard in the 19:30 at Kempton on Wednesday (BSP of 1.89)

14 top-rated selections have placed and 7 races have been won by second or third top-rated horses.

E-Book System Results – Last 2 Days

Cherry Lays (Recovery) +3.00 points

(323.98 points amassed in 2012)

Cherry Pips:  +10.10 points

(596.70 points amassed in 2012)

Full Results (Please note: these 2 systems are not connected to our ratings)

Market Movers System

The selection process for the dutching system mentioned recently identified a couple of big priced winners on Wednesday. Miss Aix recorded the second highest 321 value on JustStartHere in the 19:00 at Kempton and went on to win the race with a Betfair SP of 43.58 & Gymdoli won the 13:40 at Hexham with an enormous Betfair SP of 212.06 after recording the second highest 321 value in the race:

Big Priced Winning SteamerClick image to enlarge

The dutching system made a small profit of 2.39 points over the last 2 days, but backing all of the qualifying selections individually with 1 point would have returned a huge profit of 171.27 points after commission (based on Betfair SPs). The approach also made a profit on Monday and Tuesday (+15.85 points).

It’s a riskier strategy as the outlay is greatly increased, but it provides a great opportunity to catch a few big priced winners and make some decent profits. Staking just 0.25 points on each qualifying selection over the last 4 days would still have returned an impressive haul of 46.78 points. Something to consider!