Watch Out For Outsiders That Have Attracted Late Money

Wednesday 16th January 2013

There have been 7 top-rated winners over the last 2 days:

Idol Deputy in the 17:30 at Wolverhampton yesterday (BSP of 4.50)
Hazard Warning in the 14:20 at Wolverhampton on Monday (4.17)
Shaking Hands in the 13:40 at Ffos Las on yesterday (BSP of 4.02)
Killimore Cottage in the 15:05 at Lingfield yesterday (BSP of 3.27)
Pairumani Prince in the 15:30 at Lingfield on Monday (BSP of 2.78)
Double Dash in the 15:35 at Lingfield yesterday (BSP of 2.60)
Sweet Liberta in the 14:00 at Lingfield on Monday (BSP of 2.13)

13 top-rated selections have placed & 8 races have been won by second or third top-rated selections.

E-Book System Results – Last 2 Days

Cherry Lays (Recovery) -3.00 points

(+34.80 points amassed in 2013)

Cherry Pips:  -28.80 points

(-95.50 points amassed in 2013)

Full Results (Please note: these 2 systems are not connected to the Cherry Picks ratings)

More Unusual Betting Patterns To Look Out For

Another horse caught my eye on JustStartHere yesterday – one that may surprise you. Miserere Mei recorded a normally off-putting high negative 321 value of -3.33 but that was AFTER the price had steamed in from 25 to 15 between 15 minutes and 3 minutes before post time (the notable price movements are highlighted in red on the screenshot below):

Unusual Betting Patterns
Click on image above to enlarge

The horse drifted massively during the last 3 minutes before the off but this has to be weighed up against the fact that it was gambled on very heavily during the previous 12 minutes or so. Either way, you should always take note when a a big outsider attracts such a flurry of betting activity.

As it turned out, Miserere Mei (Betfair SP of 21.37) came third in a race where the top 3 were separated by 2 necks. It was a close run thing but the Betfair SP place odds were still a generous 5.17. When it comes to backing outsiders in these scenarios, I would always recommend a conservative approach – i.e. backing them each way or to place.

Watch out for unusual betting patterns today on JustStartHere

How Do We Personally Use The Price Movement Data Provided By JustStartHere?

I had a bit of time to kill on my lunchbreak today so I logged into my JustStartHere account and had a quick look at the steamers and drifters in the upcoming race (the 13:30 at Lingfield). I noticed that 2 outsiders (Polarity & Big Kahuna) had attracted a bit of money during the last 3 minutes before post time. In fact, they recorded the 2 highest positive 321 values in the race on  JustStartHere (highlighted in red on the screenshot below):

Horse Racing SteamersClick on image above to enlarge

Seeing that the race had 8 runners (meaning 3 place positions), and that the odds were good, I decided to put £2 on each of them to place:

Betfair ScreenClick on image above to enlarge

Polarity duly came third with an enormous Betfair place SP of 65.26 and netted me a profit of £120.19 after commission:

Betfair WinningsClick on image above to enlarge

We receive a lot of emails asking how we personally use the JustStartHere information and this demonstrates our approach perfectly. It is important to be selective and look for value. In this race the 3 favourites were odds-on to place yet the 2 biggest positive 321 ratings on JSH were recorded by 2 outsiders. All it takes is for one of the top 3 in the betting to run a bad race and for one of the 2 outsiders that have been backed during the last 3 minutes before post time to show why they have attracted late money. As it turned out, this is exactly what transpired and a £4 outlay returned a profit of £120.

You don’t have to try and force an angle in every single race – just pick the ones where you think there’s value to be had. Nor do you have to sit and follow a system all day, every day to make use of the data. At just £6 per month the service still provides value for money if you only use it in the evenings, at weekends or whenever you get the chance to follow the racing. Indeed, the profit I made in this race covers a 20 month subscription to the service.

Click on the button below to monitor unusual betting patterns in all UK & Irish horse racing markets with JustStartHere:

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Following The Late Horse Racing Market Movers On Betfair Can Be Very Profitable…

Monday 6th August 2012

There have been 17 top-rated winners over the last 3 days:

Top-Rated Winners

Top-rated Fulbright wins at Glorious GoodwoodTop-rated Fulbright wins at Glorious Goodwood (photo: Sporting Life)

37 top-rated selections have placed and 23 races have been won by second or third top-rated horses.

E-Book System Results – Last 3 Days

Cherry Lays -1.1 points

(612.48 points amassed since Oct 2009)

Cherry Pips:  -29.1 points

(400.5 points amassed in 2012)

Full Results (Please note: these 2 systems are not connected to our ratings)

Late Steamers

Georgie won the 14:15 at Galway yesterday with a huge Betfair SP of 105.8 after recording a 321 value of +2 on JustStartHere (the highest in the race):

Late SteamerPlease Note: You can view the image above and the one below in more detail by right-clicking on them and selecting “Open image in new tab”. Alternatively you can zoom in and out by holding the Ctrl key and pressing + or -.

Lazarus Bell placed in the 15:15 at Newbury yesterday with a Betfair place SP of 12.6 after recording a 321 value of +2.3 on JustStartHere (again, the highest in the race):

Late SteamerWatch out for unusual betting patterns this week with JustStartHere:

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